Outlook 2008
Jan 1, 2008 12:00 PM, By Mike Kennedy
Karen Wagner High School San Antonio, Texas Architect: PBK Photographer: Jud Haggard
Each year, the world evolves, but for education institutions, the cyclical nature of the school calendar means administrators come up against the same issues and challenges again and again.
In 2008, schools and universities must deal with most of the same facility issues that they have addressed in some fashion before — how to provide safe and healthful environments conducive to learning in a cost-effective manner.
It's not so easy when the details come into play: budget constraints, rising costs, environmental and health concerns, insufficient space, outdated facilities, fluctuating student numbers, security requirements, technological advances rendering existing equipment and programs obsolete.
The new year will be different in some respects. Voters will choose a new president in 2008, and the issue of reforming and improving education is likely to get some attention from the presidential candidates.
They will get a push from Strong American Schools, an advocacy group backed by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Eli and Edythe L. Broad Foundation. The group's goal is to make sure education is a top priority in the 2008 presidential election.
Some cynical educators dissatisfied with previous national attention in the form of the No Child Left Behind Act might hope that Congress and the federal government would not shine their spotlight on schools.
Efforts to reauthorize the No Child Left Behind law stalled in Congress in 2007, but lawmakers are expected to take up the issue in 2008, and, depending on one's view of the law, refine and improve it, or fix it.
Following is an analysis of key issues that will impact education institutions in 2008 and beyond, as well as insight into how school and university administrators can best prepare for what lay ahead.
OUTLOOK enrollment
The long-range outlook for school enrollment in the United States is continued growth, but at a slower pace than what occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s.
But, in a nation as wide and diverse as the United States, hidden in the gradual climb of those numbers are pockets of individual districts and public schools that are losing enrollment because of population declines and families that choose charter schools and private institutions.
Federal estimates of future student enrollment in K-12 school districts show overall numbers will keep climbing. According to the National Center for Education Statistics' “Projections of Education Statistics to 2016,” total enrollment, public and private, in elementary and secondary schools grew 15 percent between 1991 and 2004 — from 47.7 million to 54.9 million. From 2004 to 2016, the report projects, pre-K to 12 enrollment will grow 9 percent.
The growth slowdown is expected to occur mostly in high schools. Enrollment in grades pre-K to 8 rose 11 percent from 1991 to 2004 and is expected to grow another 11 percent from 2004 to 2016. However, the numbers in grades 9 to 12, which climbed 26 percent from 1991 to 2004, are expected to climb only 4 percent between 2004 and 2016.
Enrollment in private pre-K to 12 schools is projected to rise 5.7 percent, from 6,133,000 in 2004 to 6,481,000 in 2016. Public school enrollment is projected to climb 9.2 percent over those years, from 48,795,000 to 53,300,000.
As urban sprawl continues to gobble up rural areas with housing and commercial developments, those newly built communities need school facilities. Meanwhile, aging urban school systems find themselves with empty classrooms and inefficient operations.
In general, the greatest areas of expected growth are in the west and south, led by Nevada, which is projected to grow 36.6 percent from 2004 to 2016. Other states projected to see growth of more than 25 percent from 2004 to 2016: Utah, Arizona, Texas and Idaho.
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