Outlook 2009
Jan 1, 2009 12:00 PM, By Mike Kennedy (mkennedy@asumag.com)
What's ahead for education facilities and business in the new year and beyond.
Enrollment
Many colleges and universities may have to deal with two contradictory perspectives on enrollment in 2009. On the one hand, the economic downturn has made it difficult for some students to afford the high tuition costs on many campuses. On the other hand, with the job market bleak, pursuing higher education is a more appealing option for young people, and many schools are reporting record sizes for their 2008-09 freshman classes.
Some examples: the total first-year enrollment at Indiana University in Bloomington for fall 2008 was 7,564 — the most ever; the University of Kansas in Lawrence had 4,483 first-time freshmen attending classes in the fall; The University of Colorado at Boulder reported a freshman class of 5,833.
Community colleges, many of which offer job re-training opportunities for displaced workers and generally are less expensive than four-year institutions, have seen their enrollments climb as well.
Even before the recession, government projections showed that enrollment in higher-education institutions was expected to climb over the next decade. The National Center for Education Statistics' "Projection of Education Statistics to 2017" forecasts that enrollment in two-year post-secondary schools will rise from 6,225,000 students in 2006 to 7,068,000 in 2017. At four-year institutions, the report projects a rise in enrollment from 6,955,000 students in 2006 to an estimated 7,874,000 in 2017.
At the K-12 level, the national trend is for slight increases in enrollment — 10.1 percent from 2005 to 2017, the government projections show. But when the figures are broken down by region, they show a wide disparity. States in the South are projected to see a 19.1 percent increase from 2005 to 2017, while Northeast states are projected to see an enrollment decline of 3.5 percent. In the West, Arizona is projected to have a 44.8 percent increase, and Nevada's projections show a 43.2 percent rise.
The enrollment decline in many large urban districts is forcing many school boards to close underutilized campuses.
Six schools in the Indianapolis district have been targeted for closing at the end of the school year. The Prince George's County (Md.) budget proposal calls for shutting down six schools in 2009. Seattle district officials have put forth a list of nine schools that are candidates for closing. The Pinellas County (Fla.) Board has voted to close seven schools in 2009. In Denver, traditional schools in underused facilities will begin sharing space with charter schools.
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